Last Updated: June 9, 2017

Calculation of Syrian refugee employment pool in the GTA (as of January 2, 2017)

 

In estimating the size of the Syrian refugee labour force, we have applied Government of Canada data reported in a January 5, 2017 story in The Globe and Mail, which analyzed the recent wave of refugees by family size. This data, however, was based upon a national sample, rather than on one of Syrians in the GTA. From this report, in particular, we have estimated the number of single-person families, as well as the average size of family, excluding single-person families.  We then combined these projections with a number of guesses on our part, such as the average number of adults per family, the ratio of adult males to females, the percentage of men and women each able and looking for work and the number of 16 and 17 year olds looking for work.

 

Number of adults in Syrian GTA refugee families with 2+ persons (start of 2017)

Total Syrian refugees in GTA, as of Jan 2/17 (per Government of Canada)  7,271
Est. no. of single-person family adults in GTA, as of Jan 2/17 (13.3%) (970)
Est. no of Syrian refugees in 2+ families  6,301
Est. av. size of a Syrian refugee 2+ family in the GTA, as of Jan 2, 2017  4.2
Number of 2+ Syrian refugee families in GTA  1,500
Guess as to no. of adults in 2+ Syrian GTA refugee families (assuming 2 adults per family is high)  1.8
Est. no. of all adults in 2+ Syrian refugee families in GTA (start of 2017)  2,700

 

Adults 18+, as an est. % of all Syrian refugees in the GTA (start of 2017)

Total Syrian refugees in GTA, as of around Jan 2/17  7,271
Est. no. of single-person family adults in GTA (see above)  970
Est. no. of all adults in 2+ families in GTA (see above)  2,700
Est. no of all Syrian adults around Jan 2/17  3,670
Est. % adults of all Syrian refugees in the GTA (start of 2017) 50.5%

 

 

Est. no. of Syrian refugee male adults in GTA labour pool (start of 2017)

Est. no. of all adults in 2+ families in GTA (see above)  2,700
Guess as to % of male adults in 2+ families in GTA 50%
Est. no of male adults in 2+ Syrian families in GTA  1,350
Guess as to % of male adults in 2+ families able and willing to work in GTA 90%
Est. no. of male adults in 2+ Syrian refugee families able and willing to work  1,215
Est. no. of adults (male and female) in Syrian one-person families (see above) 970
Guess as to % of male adults in one-person families 50%
Est. no of male adults in Syrian one-person families 485
Guess as to % of male adults in one-person families able and willing to work 75%
Est. no. of male adults in one-person Syrian families able and willing to work 364
Est. no. of Syrian male refugee adults able and willing to work in GTA (start of 2017)  1,579

 

 

 

Est. no. of Syrian refugee female adults in GTA labour pool (start of 2017)

Est. no. of all adults in 2+ families in GTA (see above)  2,700
Guess as to % of female adults in 2+ families in GTA 50%
Est. no of female adults in 2+ Syrian families in GTA  1,350
Guess as to % of female adults in 2+ families able and willing to work in GTA 70%
Est. no. of female adults in 2+ Syrian refugee families able and willing to work  945
Est. no. of adults (male and female) in Syrian one-person families (see above) 970
Guess as to % of female adults in one-person families 50%
Est. no of female adults in Syrian one-person families 485
Guess as to % of female adults in one-person families able and willing to work 75%
Est. no. of female adults in one-person Syrian families able and willing to work 364
Est. no. of Syrian female refugee adults able and willing to work in GTA (start of 2017) 1,309

 

 

Est. no. of Syrian 16 to 17 years olds in GTA labour pool (start of 2017)

Est. no of Syrian refugees in 2+ families in GTA 6,301
Guess as to % of Syrian refuges in GTA who are 16-17 years old 5%
Est. no. of Syrian 16-17 year old males and females in the GTA  315
Guess as to % of 16-17 year olds who will be looking for full or part-time work in the GTA in 2017 85%
Est. no. of Syrian refugee 16-17 year olds who will be looking for full or part-time work in the GTA (start of 2017) 268

 

 

Est. total no. of Syrian refugees in GTA able and willing to work (start of 2017)

Est. no. of Syrian male refugee adults able and willing to work in GTA 1,579
Est. no. of Syrian female refugee adults able and willing to work in GTA 1,309
Est. no. of Syrian 16 to 17 years olds in GTA labour pool able and willing to work in GTA 268
Est. no. of Syrian refugees able and willing to work in GTA (start of 2017) 3,156

 

 

Estimated no. of Syrian refugees looking for first or better job (start of 2017)

Est. no. of Syrian refugees able and willing to work in GTA (start of 2017) 3,156
Guess as to no. of Syrian refugees in GTA, who already had satisfactory jobs (start of 2017) (1,250)
Est. no. of Syrian refugees in GTA looking for full- or part-time work, before any net Internal migration from elsewhere in Canada, beginning in 2017  1,906