Last Updated: June 11, 2017

Syrian refugees in the GTA – by family size

 

In order to estimate the number of private sponsors affiliated with Syrian refugees in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), we have relied upon an analysis of Syrian refugees who had settled across Canada by the end of December, 2016, which was published in The Globe and Mail on January 5, 2017: Syrian exodus to Canada: One year later, a look at who the refugees are and where they went. (See data reported for all of Canada in our separate article: Syrian refugees across Canada – by family size.)

 

If the percentages by family size and refugee stream in The Globe and Mail story for all of Canada are representative of the Syrian refugee population in the GTA, they can be used to generate a profile for the 7,271 Syrian refugees settled in the GTA as of January 2, 2017, using the actual breakdown of GARS, PSRs, and BVORs.

 

Cross-Canada profile from The Globe and Mail story applied to actual numbers of Syrian refugees in the GTA as of Jan 2/17:
Family Size Gov’t-assisted (GAR) % of GARs Privately-sponsored (PSR) % of PSRs Blended (BVOR) % of BVORs Total % of all categories
1  67 2.6%  874 21.8%  30 4.6%  970 13.3%
2  55 2.1%  453 11.3%  11 1.7%  518 7.1%
3  98 3.7%  676 16.9%  33 5.2%  807 11.1%
4  410 15.7%  1,188 29.7%  100 15.7%  1,699 23.4%
5  529 20.2%  510 12.7%  166 25.9%  1,204 16.6%
6  597 22.8%  210 5.2%  161 25.1%  968 13.3%
7  389 14.9%  81 2.0%  57 8.8%  527 7.3%
8+  476 18.2%  16 0.4%  84 13.1%  577 7.9%
 All sizes  2,621 100.0%  4,008 100.0%  642 100.0%  7,271 100.0%

 

 

As an example, in the table above, 22.8% of GAR families across Canada were comprised of six individuals. Since we know that there were 2,621 GARs in the GTA as of January 2, 2017, we can estimate, using the same percentage, that 597 Syrian refugees in the GTA (22.8%) were in families of six. This methodology also suggests a surprising 874 of the 7,271 Syrian refugees in the GTA were in single-person, PSR “families”.

 

Number of Syrian refugee families in the GTA by size of family

Based upon the above distribution of individuals by refugee category and family size, we can estimate the number of family units in the GTA. For example. 1,188 individuals in the PSR category belonging to families of four, represent 297 privately-sponsored families, as shown in the table below.

 

Family Size No. of GAR families No. of PSR families No. of BVOR families Total PSR and BVOR sponsored families Total No. of families
1 67 874 30 904 971
2 28 227 6 232 260
3 33 225 11 236 269
4 103 297 25 322 425
5 106 102 33 135 241
6 100 35 27 62 161
7 56 12 8 20 75
8+ 60 2 11 13 72
Estimated total no. of Syrian refugee families in the GTA at end of 2016/start of 2017 550 1,773 150 1,924 2,474

 

Based upon the above calculations, we estimate that, as of January 2, 2017, there were 1,924 Syrian refugee families in the GTA who were privately sponsored, either as PSRs or BVORs.

 

In a separate article, Syrian refugees in the GTA by category of support and local area of settlement, we have estimated that an additional  2,232 to 2,908 PSR and BVOR Syrian refugees will be settled in the GTA during 2017. Based upon a continued, estimated average family size of 2.9, this would add 770 to 1,000 more PSR and BVOR families, bringing the total by the end of 2017 to 2,694 to 2,924 PSR and BVOR Syrian families in the GTA.

 

Because we have applied the estimated national distribution by family size to the actual GTA population of Syrian refugees as of January 2, 2017, the assumed average Syrian refugee family size was 2.9, or 4.2, excluding single person “families”.